Alaco

19.04.2016 | What’s behind Erdogan’s confrontation with Germany?

Turkish President’s muscle-flexing is the latest sign of a clear shift in the dynamic between the two countries.

In the last month Turkey's Foreign Ministry has summoned Germany's ambassador three times for stern lectures over perceived German insults and meddling in Turkish domestic affairs.  These rebukes would have been unthinkable were it not for Turkey’s increasingly important role in the collective effort to resolve the Syrian refugee crisis that dominates European, and particularly German, politics.

In March the Turkish Foreign Ministry twice summoned the German ambassador Martin Erdmann: initially to complain about a satirical song broadcast in Germany that depicted President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as an authoritarian leader, and then to protest over Berlin’s expression of concern for two investigative journalists facing prosecution in Istanbul.  In early April the diplomat was called in again after a German satirist, Jan Böhmermann, had read out a lurid poem about the Turkish president on TV.  The matter did not end there – Erdogan has now pressed for Böhmermann to be prosecuted and Chancellor Angela Merkel controversially conceding to the demand.

The affair reflects a marked change in the nature of the relationship between the two countries, in which Germany has long been the dominant force. Millions of Turks have migrated to Germany over the years in search of a better life, playing a critical role in its economic success.  In each of the last ten years, Germany has been the top destination for Turkish exports, while German companies have benefited from Turkey’s relatively cheap labour costs.  Yet Germany resisted Turkey’s bid to join the EU over human rights issues and apparent concerns that the inclusion of a large Muslim country would change the character and the balance of power within the union.

Recently, the power dynamic has begun to shift. In the 2000s the number of Turkish migrants coming to Germany decreased dramatically as the Turkish economy doubled in size, with many Turks leaving Germany for their homeland to take advantage of employment and business opportunities.  At the same time, the war in Syria made Turkey an indispensable, albeit unreliable, ally in the battle against Islamic extremists.  And now with the Syrian refugee crisis, Germany is more reliant on Turkey than ever.

Last month European leaders negotiated a deal with Turkey requiring it to readmit refugees that entered Greece in exchange for €6 billion in compensation, concessions on visa-free travel for Turkish citizens into the Schengen area, and renewed support for the country’s EU accession.  Merkel desperately needs the deal to work. 

When the numbers of refugees crossing the Mediterranean rose dramatically in 2015, the German Chancellor remained steadfast in her conviction that Germany was able and morally obliged to accept them, particularly those from Syria.  However, following Merkel’s vain attempts to convince other European leaders to share some of the burden, the public mood started to shift against her.

Members of her party as well as her coalition partners came under pressure to push for a curb on the influx of migrants, not least because of the rise of the populist AfD party.  Merkel now stands with her back against the wall.  She enjoyed near-unprecedented support across the political spectrum when she stood up to Brussels, Greece and Russia, but is now perceived by many Germans as kowtowing to a thin-skinned Turkish bully.  While Erdogan has become a laughing stock in the German media, Merkel’s willingness to do his bidding has led to a drop in her approval ratings.

Erdogan understands very well that his German counterpart is hugely dependent on his cooperation over the refugee issue, which is why he is prepared to risk taking such a strong stand on Germany’s perceived slights.  In doing so he is burnishing the image he wishes to project of himself as a powerful Ottoman-style ruler who deals decisively with those who challenge him or seek to undermine Turkey.

But growing numbers of Turks regard his pretensions as merely a cover for creeping authoritarianism and graft.  Erdogan has been accused of harassing political opponents and seizing their media outlets, his AK party has been engulfed in corruption scandals, while private businesses have found themselves subject to politically-motivated regulatory or legal action, especially when suspected of supporting one of the President’s rivals.  All of which appears to have dented his support.  In 2015 the AK Party needed two general elections to form a government, one in June and another in November, as initially it failed to attract enough votes to govern on its own and could not build a coalition.

So while Erdogan’s willingness to confront Germany may play well with faithful followers, many in Turkey are likely to see it as little more than grandstanding by a President seeking to distract attention away from his mismanagement of the country.