Alaco

19.08.2016 | Thai military sets a risky course

Recent bombings send a warning to army leaders as they consolidate their grip on power.

Thailand’s junta have sought to downplay last week’s bomb attacks at several tourist resorts, which came days after Thais approved a constitution deepening the military’s influence over the politically turbulent nation.  The authorities were quick to portray the violence as “local sabotage” with no terrorism connection, despite speculation that it may have been a concerted operation by insurgents in the south of the country or political opponents.  But whoever was responsible, the attacks, which left several dead and dozens injured, have cast a shadow over the controversial transition programme the army is bent on pursuing.

The military has a long record of interfering in domestic politics.  Since the abolition of an absolute monarchy in 1932, there have been 19 coups – 12 of them successful – and almost the same number of constitutions.  In the most recent chapter of the country’s stormy political history, the tycoon-turned-politician Thaksin Shinawatra, elected Prime Minister in 2001, was forced out of office in 2006 before going into self-imposed exile.  He drew strong support from the rural population by championing populist policies, such as low-interest agricultural loans and subsidised universal health care.  At the same time, he faced accusations of human rights abuses and corruption, and after his ouster he was convicted of abuse of power in absentia.

However, he continued to wield influence through political allies back home, and his sister, Yingluck, followed in his footstep, becoming Prime Minister in 2011.  She, in turn, was deposed in 2014 and a year later banned from politics for five years, after a military-appointed court convicted her of mismanaging a rice subsidy scheme.  Thailand’s royalist-military establishment viewed Thaksin Shinawatra as a particular threat, as they feared his successful mobilisation of the rural poor would keep the elite’s favoured party, the Democratic Party, out of power. 

Some observers believe the new constitution is aimed at further curbing the influence of Thaksin Shinawatra – who remains popular – and securing the military’s grip on the country at a time of deep uncertainty about the future of the monarchy.  The health of the much revered 88-year-old King Bhumibol Adulyadej is failing and there are questions over his succession.  The army may be trying to ensure that its status is not challenged in the event of a power vacuum.

Under the new constitution, a proportional voting system will make it harder for large parties, such as the Sinawatras’ Puea Thai Party, to win an overall majority.  The regime says it will hold an election next year, which is likely to deliver a weak coalition government that will be required to follow a 20-year development plan set by the army.  MPs’ powers are also to be constrained by a junta-appointed senate and the military will be able to issue emergency decrees without parliamentary consent.  Some have quipped that the new constitution means there will be no need for more coups, as the government will effectively have to toe the army line. 

That such an undemocratic constitution was approved by 61 per cent of voters baffled many, particularly since none of the main political parties were consulted in the drafting process and ordinary Thais were largely kept in the dark.  The authorities said the charter would tackle corruption and help reform the country, but they restricted debate and limited what the media could report.  Nonetheless, public disapproval was evident from the scores of activists arrested in the run-up to the referendum and the 55% turnout, which fell well short of the 80% the electoral commission had forecast.

While the regime does have its supporters, some commentators say many of those who backed the constitution are likely to have done so out of fatigue with the perennial political crises.  They may believe that a deeply-flawed democracy will at least provide some stability and perhaps give the authorities an opportunity to kick-start the economy, which has been hit hard by a general slowdown in demand for exports, mounting household debt, and a plunge in foreign investment.

But the course the regime is taking appears to be fraught with risks.  It remains unclear whether last week’s attacks were isolated or a response to the military’s bid to control Thai politics.  The junta has latterly hinted at the possible involvement of groups loyal to Thaksin Shinawatra, which the Puea Thai Party has dismissed.  But by effectively putting meaningful democracy on hold, the country’s acute political divide will likely grow and with it, the potential for further instability.