Alaco

01.06.2016 | Nigeria: Insurgents threaten to deepen economic crisis

President Buhari’s bid to revive the ailing Nigerian economy is being undermined by a new insurgency in the oil-rich Niger Delta region.

Over the past few months, the Niger Delta in the south of the country has witnessed the emergence of a new militant group whose attacks on oil facilities have been ringing alarm bells in Abuja. Little is known about the group, the Niger Delta Avengers, NDA, but their attacks on terminals and pipelines in the region, which accounts for much of the country’s production, has resulted in national output falling from 2.2 to 1.4 million barrels a day. The plunge will severely undermine President’s Muhammadu Buhari’s attempt to revive the struggling, oil-dependent economy.

The NDA, which has disrupted the activities of oil majors such as Chevron and Shell, has demonstrated a level of sophistication and technical expertise similar to some of the militant groups that wreaked havoc in the region in the mid-2000s. Between 2006 and 2009, a campaign of pipeline sabotage, kidnappings and armed takeovers of oil facilities halved the country’s oil production.  A number of international companies reduced their onshore installations while others ceased operations in Nigeria altogether.

The insurgency was eventually brought to an end when the Abuja authorities offered the roughly 30,000 militants a generous amnesty.  Under the deal, ex-combatants were given a monthly stipend, job training and their commanders handed lucrative ‘security contracts’ to protect the oil infrastructure they had previously sought to destroy. But the region remained impoverished and even under the presidency of Goodluck Jonathan, who hails from Delta, promised development never materialised.

Regional resentment simmered and appears to have grown under Buhari’s tenure. Community leaders say he has disproportionately targeted prominent local people as part of his anti-corruption drive. Earlier this year, he alienated locals further by announcing a 70 per cent cut in the amnesty programme, reducing the stipends and ending the security contracts. It is not clear whether this provoked the latest round of militancy, but the NDA has made continued government funding for the programme one of their main demands. These demands also include compensation for environmental damage and renewed calls for the Delta to receive a greater share of oil revenues.

Buhari appears determined to crack down on the militants, and has sent army reinforcements into the troubled region.  There have been reports of civilians being beaten by soldiers in areas where NDA members are believed to be hiding. In Oporoza, some 20,000 residents are said to have fled into the bush in advance of an army operation.  Some Western and Nigerian officials have warned the President that a military solution will not resolve the crisis. Retired Brigadier General Paul Boroh, who runs the amnesty programme, has said the Delta will become a “major problem” unless the federal authorities channel adequate resources to the region.  His concerns are underlined by reports that the NDA may demand secession from Nigeria.

While Buhari agreed over the weekend to meet with local leaders to begin to address their grievances, he insists that the security operation will continue. It is too early to say whether such a carrot-and-stick strategy will prove effective, but the President cannot afford to allow the insurgency to drag on, as he will need oil production in the Delta to return to normal in order to support the record levels of spending he believes are necessary to lift the country out of its economic crisis.