Alaco

21.11.2016 | Merkel’s reinvention opens way for global role

The German Chancellor has deftly transformed herself from a competent manager of government factions and her country’s economic interests into a principled stateswoman who could now have an important role to play on the world stage.

Following her election as German chancellor in 2005, Angela Merkel was seen as a tame, pro-business technocrat eager to please her core constituency of fiscally and socially conservative voters, but in the last year or so she has emerged as an internationally-admired political leader.  Such is her transformation that the election of Donald Trump has prompted some to suggest that she is set to become an even more influential global figure.

But how and why did her reinvention come about?  The first signs of it came in the summer of 2015 when she resisted pressure from the conservative wing of her centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and famously welcomed hundreds of thousands of refugees fleeing Syria, Afghanistan and other war-torn countries.  The influx that year alone will shape Germany for decades to come and is likely to be remembered as her main legacy.  Merkel’s decision was based on personal conviction, even if some saw it as going against the interests of her domestic and European allies.

She has also toughened her stance towards Russia, despite it importing more products from Germany than any other country.  Having previously advocated only targeted penalties against individuals, which was the approach favoured by German businesses, she is now leading bolder European sanctions efforts, pushing for even harsher measures that would prevent whole Russian industries from trading with the European Union.

On the home front, Merkel has angered businesses and conservative politicians by reversing her onetime opposition to mandatory quotas for women on the supervisory boards of German corporates.  She has also caused uproar among the business community by considering protectionist limits to Chinese acquisitions.  As one of the most internationally-minded economies in the world, Germany heavily depends on foreign trade.  But Merkel has grown wary of investment from the Far East.  She agonised about a Chinese takeover of robotics company Kuka before ultimately agreeing to the deal, but then went on to block the sale of optics company Aixtron to another Chinese bidder.

Merkel’s willingness to place political principles above business interests is also beginning to show in her position towards Brexit negotiations.  Some within the UK government have argued that Germany would be open to a generous deal, allowing British companies continued access to the EU’s internal market.  Not least because they rightly believe German car manufacturers want to keep selling their products to Britain.  But Merkel has made it clear that wider political considerations come first, concerned that an a la carte deal with the UK would encourage other member states to splinter from the union.

Merkel’s principled position on a whole raft of domestic and international issues is in marked contrast to the stance she took in the first decade of her chancellorship when she was a pragmatic but cautious manager with an eye to the interests of her party and its traditional constituents.  In the first decade of her chancellorship, the chief criticism of Merkel was her lack of leadership.  She was seen as a bland moderator between quarrelling factions within her governments, eager to please voters rather than demonstrate personal convictions.  This reactive attitude was seen in her change of mind over nuclear energy.  Merkel was initially an advocate then phased it out after the Fukushima disaster.  On social policy, she opposed same-sex marriage to appease conservatives, even though she is thought to have privately supported it.

So why has the Chancellor changed tack?  There are those who argue that after a decade in power, she has achieved many of her economic objectives.  Having solidified Germany’s position as an export-driven manufacturing powerhouse, her self-confidence is such that she no longer feels that she needs to pander to narrow party interests and if her new conviction politics upsets people – so be it.   

While she may have lost a few of her traditional supporters of late, her shift to the left has allowed the CDU to reach far beyond its traditional voters, strengthening its electoral prospects.  The party has hollowed out the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), which now has little to differentiate itself from the CDU.  Indeed current polls show the SPD at 22%, and if the party cannot improve on this then it is heading for its worst ever results in next year’s national elections.  And while the CDU’s move has opened up a space on its right that is now being occupied with the populist-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, it is virtually impossible for the AfD to form a government as no other party would be willing to enter into a coalition with it.

To pre-empt the rise in Germany of the kind of working-class disenfranchisement that put  Trump into the White House and gave British Prime Minister Theresa May a mandate to leave the EU, some of Merkel’s colleagues are likely to advise her to revert to the more conservative positions she has held in the past.  However, she faces more of a threat from the left than the right.  A recent poll showed that populist trailblazer, Trump, is hugely unpopular in Germany even among AfD supporters, while a German equivalent of the likes of former US Democratic presidential nominee Bernie Sanders or British opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn would pose a greater challenge.  Indeed, a broad coalition between the far-left Die Linke, the Social Democrats and the Green party at the moment appears to be the only grouping that could deny Merkel a fourth term as Germany’s chancellor.

Merkel’s evolution from economic manager to principled leader is a key element of Germany’s changing role in the world.  For much of the last seventy years, the country had assumed a muted role in international politics, largely following the US lead.  However, emboldened by its economic muscle and the lack of influential leaders willing and able to defend liberal values internationally, Germany has led Europe on matters such as the dialogue with Russia over Ukraine and Syria.  If, once Trump takes office, America starts to withdraw from the world stage, Merkel’s prominence might increase even more.