Alaco

15.06.2016 | Kurds fearful as President Erdogan ups the ante

Turkey’s President looks set to extend his powers and clamp down on Kurdish political opposition in a move that may deepen the country’s security crisis.

Politicians being investigated for criminal offences could soon face trial under a draconian new law that further erodes Turkey’s democratic credentials and risks intensifying fighting between security forces and Kurdish militants.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan last week signed a controversial bill lifting MPs' immunity from prosecution, in an apparent bid to remove the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party, HDP, from parliament and usher in an executive presidential system. Erdogan has long accused the HDP of being the political wing of the outlawed Kurdish Workers’ Party, PKK. He and the ruling Justice and Development Party, AKP, have repeatedly called for HDP deputies to be prosecuted for allegedly supporting terrorism, despite the party distancing itself from the militants and condemning their violence.

While the lifting of parliamentary immunity could lead to the prosecution of scores of MPs from a number of parties, the legislation appears to be aimed squarely at the HDP, the third-largest party in parliament.  The authorities have prepared nearly 800 charges, with the majority directed against 50 of the 59 HDP deputies. Most of the offences they are accused of relate to terrorism, and they would lose their seats if convicted.  Removing them from the assembly would provide Erdogan with the two-thirds majority needed for constitutional changes granting him greater powers.

Erdogan signposted his intentions last month when he appointed close ally Binali Yildirim as Prime Minister, after Ahmet Davutoglu, known to be concerned about the President’s authoritarian tendencies, stepped down from the post.  Yildirim declared that his main aim would be to prepare the ground for an executive presidency and crush the PKK insurgency. The HDP has warned that the prosecution of its deputies will prompt many young Kurdish supporters to lose hope in the democratic process and join the ranks of the militants.

Erdogan’s antipathy towards HDP can be traced back to its success in parliamentary elections last June.  Adopting a progressive platform that appealed to a cross-section of voters, the party secured 13 per cent of the vote denying the AKP, which Erdogan founded 14 years ago, a majority.  Soon after, the 2013 ceasefire with the PKK broke down, with the authorities suspected of provoking renewed conflict to weaken HDP support and fan Turkish nationalism. When coalition talks failed a snap November election was called, which the AKP won.

The prospect of MPs facing trials as Erdogan strengthens his grip on the country has alarmed the EU, already concerned over the erosion of democracy and the rule of law. Officials are accused of stifling critical media, undermining the independence of the judiciary and human rights abuses. The President of the European Parliament, Martin Schulz, described the lifting of immunity from prosecution "as a blow to Turkish democracy”, while Centre-right MEP Renate Sommer said Turkey was on its way to becoming a "presidential dictatorship".

The move will put further pressure on a refugee deal struck between the EU and Turkey, under which Brussels agreed to offer Ankara $3 billion and visa-free travel for its citizens in exchange for helping to stop the flow of migrants into Europe. The latter offer has been at risk because of Erdogan’s refusal to change anti-terrors laws which many believe are increasingly used to target government critics.

The instability is beginning to hurt the economy. The number of tourists visiting the country fell by almost 30% in April, the biggest drop in 17 years, with some economists forecasting that tourism revenue might drop by a quarter this year. Meanwhile, investor confidence, likely shaken by the security situation, could be further undermined by a slowing of the reform process as the government focuses its energies on paving the way for an executive presidential system.