Alaco

13.07.2016 | Colombia at risk of post-FARC instability

The Colombian government looks set to sign a peace deal to end its decades-long conflict with FARC, but organised crime groups seem poised to fill the power vacuum left by the rebels.

Hopes that last month’s ceasefire between the Bogota government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) will lead to a new era of stability in Colombia may be premature.  The truce is expected to be followed later this month with the signing of a peace agreement, the result of nearly four years of negotiations. 

However, a new threat is looming, as increasingly powerful criminal groups appear determined to seize FARC’s drug-trafficking and illegal gold mining operations once it demobilises.  In 2014 Forbes Israel estimated that FARC had a total annual income of $600 million from its various illegal activities, making it one of the best-funded terrorist organisations in the world.  Colombia’s Attorney General’s Office has confirmed that organised crime groups, bandas criminales, known by their acronym Bacrim, are eyeing territory controlled by the guerrillas.

Bacrim are said to be present in over a third of Colombia’s municipalities.  The biggest group, los Urabenos, has around 2,500 members, equivalent to nearly 40 per cent of FARC’s fighting force.  The gangs formerly belonged to the United Self-defence Forces of Colombia, AUC.  Backed by military officials and politicians, these right-wing paramilitaries targeted FARC fighters and their supporters in the 1990s and early 2000s.  After signing a peace agreement with the government, more than 30,000 AUC members demobilised between 2003 and 2006, but many refused to lay down their weapons, regrouping to form what were termed neo-paramilitary groups.

The government dismissed these paramilitaries as criminals – motivated only by the profits from narcotics smuggling and illegal mining – and refused to include them in peace talks.  Bacrim, meanwhile, have become increasingly violent, and there are now concerns that regional power brokers may hire their members to thwart demobilised rebels’ participation in politics and the return of land to families displaced by the conflict.  The threat posed by these groups is likely to grow if, as many fear, they take over FARC’s considerable illegal economies. There have already been clashes between the rebels and Bacrim, apparently encroaching on the former’s territory.

FARC is still believed to be involved in drug trafficking and illegal gold mining, but in a sign that the rebels will make good their commitment to abandon both once the peace deal is signed, they recently pledged to stop extorting money from businesses in areas they control.

With the peace deal in place, the authorities will be able to focus more attention and resources on combating Bacrim and a small leftist group called the National Liberation Army.  As part of the bilateral ceasefire agreement, officials pledged to set up a national commission to determine the most effective way of dismantling the organised crime groups.  Earlier this year, an elite unit, known as the Search Bloc, was created to pursue them.

The Urabenos are already being heavily targeted, so much so that their drug trafficking operations in the organisation’s stronghold of Uraba have been affected.  However, all of its top leaders remain at large and it continues to exert a high degree of control over the region, recently ordering businesses and public services to close for 24 hours to commemorate the death of an Urabenos member.

The FARC demobilisation process envisions the rebels assembling in 23 zones, where they will begin their transition to civilian life.  The significant presence of security forces in and around these areas could ward off other armed groups.  But InSight Crime, a journalism NGO, says that the zones only cover a fraction of the territory likely to be targeted by Bacrim.  It warns that unless the Colombian military bolsters its presence in almost 80 municipalities, they could become battlegrounds for control of FARC’s illegal economies.

At the same time, the authorities must do more to eradicate the principal sources of FARC income.  They are planning large-scale coca-substitution programmes to persuade farmers to switch to growing legal crops, but it is unclear whether there will be sufficient investment in roads to get the produce to market.  While significant steps have been taken to stem illegal gold mining through the closure of unlicensed mines and seizure of contraband cargoes, there appears to be a need for a greater focus on prosecuting corrupt exporters.

Colombian officials are hoping a peace deal with FARC will triple foreign direct investment to $36 billion and increase economic growth by up to 2%, but these potential gains depend on their ability to prevent Bacrim taking over the rebels’ criminal activities.